This note is a part of my Zettelkasten. What is below might not be complete or accurate. It is also likely to change often.

30th July, 2020

Jury theorem or the wisdom of the masses

Jury Theorem was proposed by Marquis de Condorcet in his 1785 classic "Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Decisions Rendered by a Plurality of Voices"

Consider a community where all share a common motivation but have different information. If everyone in the community is more right than wrong about what is in their collective interest, make up their minds independantly and vote anonymously, large populations can outperform a small governing body in the efficacy of their decision-making.

Related to:

Randomness as a strategy to avoid biases: We are introducing more randomness and converging to come to a decision when using more people.
Democracy: If people are not making up their minds independantly, democracy is not a good idea.

Last Updated: 30th July, 2020

democracy society